4.2.3 Ultimate Land Use
This Plan provides management strategies both for the period of the Plan – 2007-2017 – and also for the long term. Impacts to water resources accumulate over long periods of time, and improvements may take long periods to achieve. This Plan takes a long term vision that takes into account long-term change. To that end, the modeling and resource planning in the subwatershed plans uses Ultimate Land Use as the planning condition, considering that Ultimate development could be considered the “worst-case scenario” for predicting impacts of development on water resources.
Land use change impacts downstream water quality by increasing the volume of runoff and the concentration and load of nutrients and sediment transported to receiving waters. Each subwatershed plan includes a table predicting how land use change such as the expected conversion of vacant land to other uses could be expected to ultimately impact water quality in the watershed’s lakes. The table also illustrates the role of the regulatory program managing these impacts.
“Ultimate Development” for this planning and modeling purpose is defined as the conversion to development of all agricultural lands and one-half of the other upland area that remains undeveloped in the 2020 local government land use plans. This conversion may take place by 2030 or require significantly more time; but it is assumed that at some point in the future these conversions will occur. This fully developed condition would be expected to generate the greatest downstream water quality impacts. Each subwatershed plan then includes a plan for reducing the impacts of that Ultimate Development condition through regulation, LGU requirements, operating programs, and capital projects.