Significant Rain Forecasted
Since June 2, 2025, MCWD has adjusted Gray’s Bay Dam discharge several times to balance water levels on Lake Minnetonka and Minnehaha Creek, based on forecasted and received precipitation, in accordance with Zone 4 of the operating plan. Following recent storms, dam discharge was adjusted to 75 cubic feet per second (cfs) on Monday, June 9, to generate storage on the Lake for future rainfall, while balancing flows in the Creek.
As of Wednesday afternoon, the National Weather Service (NWS) is predicting 1.5 to over 2 inches of precipitation across the watershed from a storm starting Thursday evening through Friday, June 13. Near-term precipitation forecasts have fluctuated since Monday with totals ranging from 0.79 to over 2 inches and currently contain significant uncertainty. The NWS is monitoring the trajectory of a frontal boundary that is contributing to volatility, changing forecasts, and the potential for higher totals where the storm settles.
Following Friday’s storm, the NWS is predicting the potential for significant precipitation early next week. Precipitation forecasts for a storm Monday, June 16, have also varied, and were downgraded Wednesday afternoon from approximately 1.5 to 0.7 inches.
Given the variability in current weather models, near-term forecasts are expected to remain highly dynamic. As the forecasts evolve, MCWD will continue to evaluate water levels and long-term outlooks to determine discharge rates that align with the operating plan’s goals.
also in this update
- 2025 Precipitation Trends and Forecasts
- Current Water Levels
- Gray’s Bay Dam Operations
- Flood Response Summit
- Water Level Resources