Storms Dropped 2-3 Inches of Rain
Most of the Minnehaha Creek Watershed received over 3 inches of rain from intense storms Wednesday, June 25, 2025, through Thursday, June 26. Precipitation totals were 1 to 1.5 inches higher than forecasted earlier in the week.
This two-day storm event produced half of June’s normal precipitation total, and waves of intense, heavy rain caused the National Weather Service (NWS) to issue a flash flood warning for Hennepin and Carver counties through Wednesday evening.
The NWS is now tracking a series of dynamic convective systems, which have the potential to produce scattered showers and severe thunderstorms that could drop an inch or more of precipitation where they develop. The NWS is expecting these storms to move through the watershed in waves beginning Saturday morning into Sunday, with the most intense rain forecasted Saturday evening; however, uncertainty in the storm’s trajectory and atmospheric conditions are contributing to volatility in the forecasted intensity and totals.
Dam discharge adjusted to maximum creek capacity
Due to the significant rainfall, Lake Minnetonka’s level has risen over 5 inches since Wednesday morning and currently sits at 929.78 feet, placing Gray’s Bay Dam operations in Zone 1 of the operating plan, which calls for maximum allowable discharge based on creek capacity.
Minnehaha Creek flow peaked at 422 cubic feet per second (cfs) on Wednesday night, with some portions reaching or exceeding bank-full conditions before subsiding to its current rate of 286 cfs. Water levels are expected to remain elevated until water flows through the system and are likely to increase if the watershed receives this weekend’s forecasted precipitation, potentially reaching similar levels to those achieved at the end of June 2024.
Following the storms, on Thursday, the Minnehaha Creek Watershed District (MCWD) adjusted Gray’s Bay Dam discharge to 225 cfs, to address increased inflow from upper tributaries, while not exacerbating Creek levels, which rose due to rainfall runoff. Based on conditions over the weekend, Dam discharge may be increased to regain storage on the Lake, while balancing the Creek’s carrying capacity. As the weekend forecast evolves, MCWD will continue to coordinate with the NWS and evaluate water levels, to determine discharge rates that balance water levels and align with the operating plan.
also in this update
- 2025 Precipitation Trends and Forecasts
- Current Water Levels
- Gray’s Bay Dam Operations
- Water Level Resources