Potential for Intense Rain
As of Wednesday, July 23, 2025, the National Weather Service (NWS) is predicting between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain Wednesday into Thursday morning across the Minnehaha Creek Watershed, with the potential for more in some locations. Most of the watershed has already received approximately half an inch since this morning. The NWS is tracking a line of convective thunderstorms expected to move across southern and central Minnesota Wednesday evening, which have the potential to produce 2 to 3 inches of intense precipitation where they develop.
Near-term precipitation forecasts have evolved over the past 48 hours, due to uncertainty in the storm’s trajectory and atmospheric conditions. These conditions are contributing to volatility in the forecasted intensity and totals.
MCWD adjusted Gray’s Bay Dam discharge to 150 cubic feet per second (cfs) on July 13, in accordance with Zone 4 of the operating plan, as water levels receded following significant rainfall in late June. Lake Minnetonka’s current water level is 929.53 feet, but if the watershed receives the forecasted rainfall, the Lake is expected to rise and may reach or exceed 929.6 feet, at which elevation the Dam is operated in Zone 1 and discharges maximum creek capacity. Minnehaha Creek is currently flowing at 192 cfs and rising in response to rain. Parts of the Creek could achieve or exceed bank-full conditions, depending on the amount, intensity, and distribution of precipitation received in the lower watershed.
Following the storm, MCWD will continue to evaluate conditions, along with short- and long-term outlooks, to determine discharge rates that balance water levels and align with the operating plan’s goals.
also in this update
- 2025 Precipitation Trends and Forecasts
- Current Water Levels
- Gray’s Bay Dam Operations
- Water Level Resources