2026 Season Outlook
Ahead of open water season, the Minnehaha Creek Watershed District (MCWD) assesses the impacts of winter weather on water levels and spring flood risk, alongside precipitation forecasts and long-term outlooks, to guide Gray’s Bay Dam operations, in accordance with the Dam’s operating plan.
Moderate Winter and below-normal Spring flood risk
The Twin Cities experienced a “moderate” 2025-2026 Winter, according to the Department of Natural Resource’ (DNR) Snow and Cold Index. The area received 48.5 inches of snow throughout the season, which is near normal, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).
While the area received normal snowfall, Spring flood risk is below normal, according to the NWS’ Spring Flood Outlook. Average temperatures in February and March were approximately 6-6.5 degrees warmer than normal, resulting in early, gradual snowmelt. Consequently, the region lacks significant snowpack heading into the open water season, which reduces Spring flood risk. Warmer temperatures have also thawed the ground, priming soils to absorb future precipitation, further reducing flood risk.
Current conditions and Dam management outlook
In coordination with the City of Minnetonka Public Works, MCWD installed stoplogs at the Dam in November 2025, to winterize and close the Dam until the 2026 open water season. This prevents water from passing through the Dam during winter, mitigating ice damage and the risk of ice jams on Minnehaha Creek. Stoplogs are anticipated to be removed by the end of April, in preparation for dam opening later this Spring.
Lake Minnetonka’s level and Creek flows have gradually increased since the end of February, following snowmelt and several rainfall events. Ice-out was declared on April 3, and the Lake currently sits 4.56 inches below its Ordinary High Water Level (OHWL) at 929.02 feet. Creek flow at Hiawatha Avenue is nearly 20 cubic feet per second (cfs).
Based on current water levels and precipitation forecasts, the Dam remains closed. From April through mid-May, the operating plan provides a large degree of flexibility in operations, to accommodate variable spring snowmelt and rainfall patterns. MCWD will continue to evaluate water levels and precipitation forecasts to determine when opening aligns with the operating plan’s goals.
also in this update
- Resources for the 2026 Open Water Season
- 2026 Precipitation Trends and Forecasts
- Current Water Levels
- Gray’s Bay Dam Operations
- Water Level Resources